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Economic and geopolitical competition -

Contemporary tensions between the US and China largely stem from economic and geopolitical competition. Hefty disputes pertaining to trade and technology, key areas in which both nations seek dominance, have resulted in a fight for supremacy on the global stage.

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The next Kissinger? -

Prior to the 2024 US Elections, the Chinese newspaper The Paper published a series of articles inquiring who in America could mimic the role of Henry Kissinger.

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1970s activity -

Kissinger, the infamous former US Secretary of State, who has been accused of war crimes among human rights groups, had an important role in bolstering US-China relations in the 1970s.

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Pragmatic approach -

Kissinger held a pragmatic approach to US-China relations, initially tied to anti-Soviet strategies. By the 1980s, Kissinger had his own economic interests relevant to a joint venture project with the Chinese government.

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Tiananmen Square -

Kissinger openly supported the brutal tactics used by the government during the Tiananmen Square massacre, and actively dimmed controversial news about China for years afterward.

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Trump promises to be tough on China -

It’s logical that the Chinese government is now looking for its "new Kissinger," given that US President-elect Donald Trump promises to be tough on China.

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Stephen Schwarzman -

According to The Washington Post, the list includes figures like Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone Group, a private equity firm who has been accused by the United Nations of “helping to fuel a global housing crisis.”

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Corporate rental investment -

Blackstone has spent the last several years driving corporate rental investment. The company has bought thousands of homes across the world, often through other third parties, renting them out for record prices, effectively reducing access to affordable housing.

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John Kerry -

The list also includes former US Secretary of State John Kerry (pictured), who has hosted a number of climate change discussions in China, as well as California Governor, Gavin Newsome, among others.

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Advanced technology -

At the forefront of today’s power struggles between the nations is advanced technology, with both the US and China fighting to lead development in sectors like AI, biotechnology, and telecommunications.

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Electric vehicles -

Electric vehicles (EV) in particular have become an especially competitive area. Turkey is looking to China to boost its capacities to increase EV, while also seeking to develop its nuclear power projects and develop the nation’s infrastructure.

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Tariffs -

The US and the EU have both taken to using tariffs as part of their strategy to reign in the influence of the Chinese market, but competition remains high due to the new alliances emerging out of China, such as their partnerships with Turkey and Brazil.

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Turkey -

Turkey, which has strong partnerships with the US under the NATO framework, also ruffled feathers upon investing in Russian defense systems.

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Brazil -

Although the US has long cooperated with Brazil, commodity trading has led to stronger economic ties between Brazil and China. Today, China is Brazil’s primary trading partner, with cooperation on the development of its infrastructure and technological sectors.

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Sanctions -

Imitating strategies applied to Russia and Iran, the US has also imposed sanctions on China, hoping to dull its economic influence.

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Alliance building -

The US is also working to build alliances with other countries in Asia to counter-balance China’s dominance in the region.

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Military confrontations -

Both the US and China have bolstered their military presence in the Indo-Pacific, fueling concerns about security and military confrontations.

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South China Sea -

In the South China Sea, the US regularly conducts exercises with its allies related to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue it holds with Japan, India, and Australia.

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Belt and Road Initiative -

China’s focus on infrastructural projects is tied to its relationship with Indo-Pacific countries. The Belt and Road Initiative in China seeks to boost influence throughout the region.

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Mutual benefits -

These nations often hold agreements with both countries, benefiting from security agreements with the US, while also enjoying the benefits of economic agreements with China, choosing not to alienate either party in favor of wider strategic partnerships.

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Geopolitical influence -

The desire to influence third-party countries does not just determine which country obtains the most economic gain, but also which country will have the most geopolitical influence in the region and elsewhere.

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Cooperation -

This shift in influence and the US’s attempts to grasp onto whatever power they can manage in an ultra-competitive environment should encourage the two nations to seek collaboration and cooperation in whatever way possible.

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Global climate -

While this option would be more favorable for the global climate, based on historical precedent, it is more likely that threats to US hegemony will lead to increased threats of aggression, and more sanctions.

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Chinese economy growth -

The growth of the Chinese economy has also facilitated its more assertive position in terms of military capacity. Instead of increasing American military presence, another posture could be negotiating arms control, along the lines of Biden’s stalled proposal on nuclear policy that would be strictly defensive.

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Other countries can play a role -

Countries with agreements with both nations can potentially play an important role in how the relationship evolves by serving as mediators in their own respective agreements with either country.

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International institutions -

Similarly, international institutions may, too, facilitate improved dynamics between the countries, by encouraging interdependencies and mutual benefits.

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Technological and industrial policies -

Both countries would likely benefit from reforms in technological and industrial policies. A good first step would be modifying the tariffs instituted by the Trump administration and furthered by Biden leadership, and seeking to develop policies that make companies more competitive on the global market.

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Climate change needs -

Existential threats relevant to climate change demonstrate the urgency for these nations to work together to address and mitigate further devastation. Both countries’ regional neighbors, in particular, are vulnerable to environmental disasters.

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Clean energy -

Investing in clean energy production, sustainable infrastructure, and development could offer an opportunity for the US and China to work together in a constructive manner, while still building mutual economic influence.

Sources: (Le Monde) (Washington Post) (The Guardian) (United Nations) (Daily Sabah) (BBC) (CNN) (AP News) (Reuters) (Quincy Institute)

See also: Cities with the worst air pollution in 2024

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